Worcester Bravehearts 2021 playoff chances

With one week to go in the Futures Collegiate Baseball League season what the Worcester Bravehearts need to do to clinch the fourth and final playoff spot is now clear. With each team having games canceled due to rain it will be a team’s winning percentage that determines if they qualify and what seed they are. Currently, Vermont, Pittsfield, and Brockton have clinched a playoff spot, and barring one of them going on a big winning or losing streak this week that order is how they’ll be seeded.

Below is what each team has remaining for games, and what their winning percentage will end up with each possible outcome. Only outcomes that will result in potentially clinching the fourth seed are listed. If a team gets any record that’s not listed, they’ll be eliminated from the playoff race. The winning percentages presume all games this week will be played. Any game canceled will throw these numbers off, but should the opportunity arise I’ll go back and edit the listing to correct it. Those numbers also presume I didn’t make any math errors, and those that know me are smart not to bet on it. If they’re incorrect I’m sure I’ll be told.

Looking at the numbers below it appears that WooBall’s magic number to clinch a playoff berth over Westfield is five; any combination of Worcester wins and Starfires loses equaling five and the Bravehearts are in the playoffs.

EDIT 8/9/21: Westfield already has had a game canceled due to rain, which makes their numbers listed below incorrect. The good news is, presuming no more cancellations, is Worcester and Westfield will play the same number of games (65) so now they can go by the standings. Because the Starfires hold the tiebreaker (head to head), the Bravehearts magic number as of Monday night is unchanged: it’s still five.

Worcester 4-0 .5076
  3-1 .4923
  2-2 .4796
  1-3 .4615
  0-4 .4461
Westfield 6-0 .5151
  5-1 .5000
  4-2 .4848
  3-3 .4696
  2-4 .4545
Norwich 4-0 .4626
New Britain 5-0 .4687
  4-1 .4531
Nashua 6-0 .4545

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