Bravehearts playoff scenario with a week to go

With seven games to go in the season the Worcester Bravehearts’ playoff chances have come into focus. Firstly, from the Futures Collegiate Baseball League site, this is the playoff structure for this season:

The 2015 FCBL playoffs will feature eight teams in a three-round format. Rounds One and Two will be one game knockout rounds, followed by a best of three championship series.

The winner of each division will determine the #1 and the #2 seeds. The division winner with the higher winning percentage will be the #1 seed while the team with the lower winning percentage of the two teams will be slotted as the #2 seed.

Seeds 3 through 8 will be determined based on the next six highest winning percentages of the remaining teams.

What makes it a little tougher to figure out is not every team will play the full 56 game schedule due to rain outs and no common dates to make up those games. So just going by the standing doesn’t work as it’s not games behind that determines playoff positioning but, as the FCBL says, winning percentage. As of posting time, the FCBL has seven games remaining for most teams (two teams have a double header scheduled for Sunday but neither directly figures into Worcester’s playoff chances). Worcester’s winning percentage is .408. The two teams directly in front of them, the Wachusett Dirt Dawgs and Torrington Titans, both have identical records and winning percentages of .467.

Over the next seven games this will be the Bravehearts’ winning percentage with each of these result:
7-0 .482
6-1 .464
5-2 .446
4-3 .429
3-4 .411

For Wachusett and Torrington, the math looks like this:
4-3 .481
3-4 .462
2-5 .442
1-6 .423
0-7 .404

Folks will notice that there are some possible results not shown. If Worcester goes worse than 3-4 they’re out. If either Torrington or Wachusett goes 5-2, that team clinches. So it boils down to if all the games are played Worcester needs three more wins over the next seven than one of either Wachusett or Torrington. With the Bravehearts playing the Dirt Dawgs today and having a home and home with Torrington they can get some of the job done themselves by winning those three games. They luck out in that Wachusett and Torrington don’t play each other this week.

The bad news is if any of these final seven games for the Dirt Dawgs or Titans isn’t played. That throws the winning percentage numbers off in such a way that’s it’s essentially better than a single win for the club not playing a scheduled game. Hopefully the FCBL will be paying close attention to field conditions in any park Wachusett or Torrington is playing in so that if it’s possible a game can be played it will be.

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