More math on Bravehearts playoff chances

So in yesterday’s posting I showed what the math looked like for the Worcester Bravehearts to catch either the Torrington Titans or Wachusett Dirt Dawgs, the teams directly in front of them in the standings. I was asked later in the day if the Bravehearts could catch other teams in the standings, and the answer is they absolutely can. Because I was asked, and it’s early and I’m bored, here are all the scenarios as of right now.

From yesterday we know that against either the Titans and Dirt Dawgs all Worcester has to do is win three more games in the upcoming week than either one of those teams. The Bravehearts beat Wachusett Sunday so they’re one win up on the Dirt Dawgs. Torrington won, so Worcester is even with them. To use baseball vernacular, the Bravehearts are now two back of Wachusett and three back of Torrington. Because of winning percentage, if they “tie” (meaning Worcester wins three more games than either) the Bravehearts advance.

The next possible team Worcester can catch is the Pittsfield Suns. Their numbers are listed below, which show that the Bravehearts need only two more wins than Pittsfield over the next six games to catch them in the standings. So the Bravehearts are, again using baseball terminology, two back of Pittsfield and own the win% tie breaker. Had I looked closer yesterday I would have added them to the original posting, but I got caught looking at the standings and not the total games played, so I thought the numbers were much worse.

The Bravehearts can also catch the Nashua Silver Knights if the Bravehearts go 6-0 and Nashua goes 0-6. If they tie (which they can at a win% of .4642) I have no idea what the FCBL tie breaker would be, but currently the Silver Knights lead the season series 2-0 with two more to play against each other.

Worcester can’t catch Brockton (lowest possible win% is .554), Martha’s Vineyard (.537), North Shore (.527), or Bristol (.509).

Now remember, all these numbers are based on every game being played. Rainouts that are not rescheduled throw out most of these numbers and they’ll need to be refigured.

As a reminder, and to complete the chart, here are Worcester’s numbers
6-0 .4821
5-1 .4642
4-2 .4464
3-3 .4285
2-4 .4107
1-5 .3928
0-6 .3750

Pittsfield’s numbers
6-0 .5185
5-1 .5000
4-2 .4814
3-3 .4629
2-4 .4444
1-5 .4259
0-6 .4074

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